As Bangladesh’s January 7 elections approach, the ruling party’s heavy-handed response to opposition protests threatens its legitimacy and increases the risk of violence and instability in the aftermath and over time. The government should seek a compromise to reduce domestic political and economic pressures, particularly over the Rohingya refugee crisis.

Political Turbulence

The AL has consolidated power at the expense of democratic institutions. Corrupt law enforcement, partisan bureaucracy, and a compromised judiciary have made consensus-building difficult. Ethnic and religious cleavages persist in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, where the government has been accused of land-grabbing from indigenous communities.

Opposition parties remain fragmented, and the BNP’s leadership is handicapped by the incarceration of Khaled Zia on dubious graft charges. Young people have largely rejected the party as unrepresentative and too close to Pakistan.

Civil society is active, despite the government’s repression of freedom of expression and the harassment of activists. Civic organizations and research groups have documented human rights violations, including enforced disappearances. They include Shoshone Jonna Nigari (Citizens for Good Governance), Mayer Dank, Centre for Governance Studies, and Adhikari. They have lobbied for improved governance and public services.

Economic Turbulence

In the decades after military rule ended, Bangladesh experienced an economic miracle that lifted tens of millions out of poverty, powered by a robust ready-made garments sector. But since the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation, price hikes, depleted foreign exchange reserves, and an energy crisis have undermined growth and exacerbated the economic hardship of low- and middle-income Bangladeshis.

The government has been unable to address these issues due to political interference. The NGO Affairs Bureau, for example, is blocking project approvals and withholding funds from local NGOs that are working on sensitive governance and rights issues. This hinders the groups’ ability to be effective and could affect funders’ willingness to provide grants.

The deteriorating economy has energized the BNP to mobilize supporters and to rally people against the AL government ahead of elections that are expected in early 2024. This poses a serious challenge to the state’s effort to prioritize political stability while also addressing the economic crisis.

Security Turbulence

The ongoing violence and political unrest in Bangladesh presents significant challenges for businesses, expats and travelers. Companies should bolster contingency plans to protect assets and employees, and expats should follow government advisories and prioritize safety.

The country’s path forward will be shaped by its ability to foster a functioning Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) peace process. The government must address mistrust between Jumma and settlers and establish a CHT Land Commission that can settle land disputes.

The government must also take steps to counter terrorist threats and promote democratic processes. Strained relations with the United States and Europe over election observation, combined with pressure from regional partners such as Russia, China and India, illustrate Bangladesh’s position as a site of geopolitical contestation. The government must decide whether to escalate its use of autocratic tactics or acquiesce to international pressure for reform. It must also resolve the underlying economic issues, including dwindling foreign reserves and an increasing trade deficit.

Foreign Policy Turbulence

Amid political turbulence and economic challenges, Bangladesh must carefully calibrate its foreign policy goals. On the one hand, its major economic partners, including the United States and Europe, have insisted on a free and fair election. On the other, the government faces increasing pressure from the United States to rein in repression of human rights and other domestic concerns.

The opposition is calling for the election to be overseen by a caretaker administration, and criticizing the ruling party’s tactics as undemocratic. The risk of a legitimacy crisis and escalating tensions could derail progress toward the country’s development aspirations. Meanwhile, the government’s reliance on autocratic tactics may fuel growing discontent among citizens, exacerbated by mounting economic hardship. Communal skirmishes could also rise, disrupting bilateral and regional ties. Amid these risks, the United States and its allies should refrain from expressing explicit support for Sheikh Hasina’s regime. They should instead encourage a return to democratic norms and ensure a free and fair electoral process.